The sheet I actually
underwrite with.
Most flip calculators ask for four numbers and hand you a profit figure that assumes everything goes right. That is not underwriting, that is a mood. This one prices the money, the carry, the transfer tax and the six months you are going to own it — and then shows you what happens when you are wrong about the two numbers everybody is wrong about.
Google Sheet. Works on any device. Costs an email address.
One tells you whether to
keep reading. One tells you what to offer.
Every calculator gives you the first one. Almost none give you the second, which is the only one you can actually negotiate against.
The 70% rule
(ARV × 70%) − rehab. Fast, and it is a screening tool, nothing more. It assumes cash. It ignores your points, your interest, your six months of taxes and insurance, and it has no idea what market you are standing in. Use it to decide whether to keep reading.
The profit-target max
Works backward from every real cost in the sheet plus the profit you said you need, and solves exactly for the highest price that still pays you. Not an approximation — it accounts for the fact that your closing costs, points and interest all move with the purchase price. This is the number you take into the offer.
The gap between them
In a fast market the profit-target number comes in higher, and the 70% rule is quietly leaving deals on the table. In a slow market with expensive money it comes in lower, and the 70% rule is telling you a losing deal is fine. The rule is a starting point, not a law.
What actually kills this deal.
ARV and rehab are the two numbers you cannot verify at the moment you have to commit, and they are the two that move profit dollar for dollar. Everything else is rounding. So the sheet runs your deal against the ways it normally goes wrong.
| Scenario | Net profit |
|---|---|
| As planned | $43,353 |
| ARV comes in 5% under | $21,971 |
| ARV comes in 10% under | $588 |
| Rehab runs 10% over | $35,864 |
| Rehab runs 20% over | $28,374 |
| You hold two months longer | $36,695 |
| ARV 10% under and rehab 20% over | −$14,391 |
That last row is not a worst case. That is a Tuesday. On paper this deal clears a $40,000 profit target and looks fine. One soft month and one wall that opens up badly, and it is $14,391 in the wrong direction — and you find that out in month five, not on the day you sign.
Break-even ARV
The sale price at which you make nothing. Compare it to the worst recent comp on the street, not the best one. If it is above that, you have no floor.
Break-even rehab
The total spend at which profit hits zero. The gap between that and your budget is your real cushion, and it is usually smaller than it feels.
Months to zero
How long you can own it before carry eats the profit. If that is barely past your planned hold, one slow listing takes the whole deal.
The costs the napkin
math pretends do not exist.
Every rate in the sheet is checked, dated and linked on its own Sources tab. Anything that could not be verified is left as an input with a note, not a guess.
The cost of money. Points on the full loan at close, interest-only on the purchase loan for the whole hold, and interest on the rehab loan weighted by draw exposure — because you do not pay on the whole rehab facility from day one.
Clark County transfer tax. $2.55 per $500, which is 0.51%. Nevada makes buyer and seller jointly liable, so it is negotiable — but as the flipper you are the seller, and in Clark County the seller customarily pays.
Six months of carry. Taxes, insurance on a vacant property, power and water through a Vegas summer, HOA, and the pool nobody budgets for on an empty house.
Both sides of the sale. Commission modelled as what you will actually pay since the 2024 changes, concessions, escrow, owner's title policy and prorations.
Where should I send it?
Three fields. The sheet arrives immediately. I do not sell your address, and there is no eight-part sequence waiting for you on the other side of this.
Here it is.
Go to File › Make a copy to get your own editable version.
What it deliberately does not do.
It does not estimate your ARV or your rehab for you. No spreadsheet can. Those come from three closed comps and from a contractor standing in the house. What this does is tell you what the numbers you bring it are actually worth.
It does not calculate income tax. A flip held under a year is generally ordinary income, and the rate depends on your entity and your situation. Ask your CPA what your after-tax number really is.
And it is not a substitute for judgment. It will tell you a deal is thin. It will not tell you whether this particular contractor is going to disappear in month three, or whether you should walk away from something that pencils. That part is not an information problem, which is the same reason the coaching exists at all.